The Race for Governor: Closer than previously reported?

A recent Cincinnati Enquirer/Ohio Newspaper Poll reveals Republican John Kasich is ahead of Democrat Ted Strickland by 4 percentage points in the race for Ohio’s governor. Why the dramatic difference between this poll and the Columbus Dispatch poll published September 5th, which found Kasich ahead by 12 points? No extraordinary news event has occurred since then to potentially harm Republicans or help Democrats.

As discussed in our previous post, nonresponse bias, a particular problem in mail surveys, likely played a role in inflating Kasich’s lead in the Dispatch poll. The new poll was conducted over the phone – utilizing both landline and cell phone numbers – with a representative sample of 852 likely voters. I’d be more confident in the numbers produced by the latter methodology than a mail survey.

Plenty of time remains between now and November 2nd for Kasich to widen his lead or Strickland to build a comeback. But for now, it seems both candidates still have a chance to win the race.